Forum:2015 Pacific hurricane season/Halola
01C.HALOLA 91C.INVEST 60% CPAC invest that should be a TD. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 16:47, July 8, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Depression One-C and yes it is. it could cross to the WPac and be an long track typhoon the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 15:14, July 10, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Halola If it does, it's named by CPHC.--Isaac829 03:08, July 11, 2015 (UTC) and its organizing '''very' quickly. the HWRF is showing Halola to become an typhoon, then getting ripped apart by wind shear in an earlier run. GFDL makes it a C3. i can't rule out an RI to happen. the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 03:52, July 11, 2015 (UTC) : The CPHC site currently forecasts this thing to become a hurricane/typhoon, but since the forecast only takes it to 70 kts at the end of the forecast, it may not be that powerful after all. Still worth watching, though: It is currently going to be the strongest of the CPac batch. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 15:41, July 12, 2015 (UTC) ::50 knts. Should cross over later today, and could at least be a typhoon in the WPAC, possibly a strong one as the GFS does that outside the 5 day forecast window. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 16:53, July 12, 2015 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Halola Well, Halola is now the first dateline crosser since Genevieve. With responsibility now in the JMA's hands, its winds are currently are 50 knots (60 mph) (10-min) with a pressure of 990 mbar (hPa; 29.23 inHg). On the JTWC side, Halola has winds of 50 knots (1-min) as well, gusting to 65 knots (75 mph). Despite moderate shear, which should decrease as the storm moves generally NW under the STR's influence, profound ventilation should result in its continued intensification. The current JTWC peak winds are 95 knots (110 mph) (1-min) gusting to 115 knots (130 mph) and 70 knots (80 mph) (10-min)/965 mbar (hPa; 28.50 inHg) per the JMA. In addition, Wake Island may have to watch out for Halola, as it is slated to pass by them as a borderline Category 1/2 storm. AndrewTalk To Me 02:57, July 13, 2015 (UTC) : Pretty cool to see another dateline crosser, but Halola probably won't be too severe for Wake Island, they're pretty prepared and somehow managed to escape significant damage when Ioke passed over the Island in 2006. Let's just hope it takes the same track as Genny and remains at sea. 'Ryan1000' 12:13, July 13, 2015 (UTC) Typhoon Halola Now it's a typhoon per the JMA, and forecast to be a stromg one, JTWC currently forecasts a 4. But the stronger it gets, the more likely it will remain out to sea, which is good. 'Ryan1000' 02:57, July 14, 2015 (UTC) :Well I didn't expect this one to cross basins. --[[User:PuffleXTREME|'Puffle']] [[User_talk:PuffleXTREME|Let's party '''HARD'!]] 21:54, July 14, 2015 (UTC) ::Puffle, that was kind of expected right from the start from Halola. Anyway, Halola isn't dealing with the most ideal conditions, as moderate shear has ripped apart some of its organization. Although the typhoon was a Category 2 earlier on, its current state has prompted the JTWC to lower its winds to 75 knots (85 mph) (1-min) gusting to 90 knots (105 mph). Meanwhile, the JMA reports winds of 70 knots (80 mph) (10-min) with a pressure of 965 mbar (hPa; 28.50 inHg). As Halola tracks generally WNW under the STR's influence, the aforementioned shear should prevent any significant intensification, but in a few days, increasing poleward outflow is expected to provide some intensification support for the typhoon. Consequently, the JMA only expects slight intensification over the next 72 hours, and the JTWC only expects peak winds of 110 knots (125 mph) (1-min) gusting to 135 knots (155 mph). Although I would love to see a re-Oliwa from Halola (minus the Japan landfall), that is also what I rooted for Pewa, and the latter barely became a typhoon. We'll see if Halola is any different... AndrewTalk To Me 15:32, July 15, 2015 (UTC) :::Yeah Puffle, I kind of expected that from the beginning. Since I'm not really interested in typhoons anymore, I might not post much here, but we'll see what this system will do. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 17:52, July 15, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Halola (2nd time) What Halola is doing is hanging on for its dear life. Despite being located in an environment with low shear, most of the storm's convection has concentrated in its eastern quadrant. (JTWC Dvorak estimates suggest) Halola's winds are currently 35 knots (40 mph) (1 and 10-min), with a pressure of 996 mbar (hPa; 29.41 inHg) and one-minute gusts of 45 knots (50 mph). As the STR steers the storm WNW and eventually NW, Halola should gradually intensify as shear lessens and outflow increases, with the JTWC predicting a secondary peak of 70 knots (80 mph) (1-min) gusting to 100 knots (115 mph). Meanwhile, the JMA is slightly more conservative and only brings it to 55 knots (65 mph) (10-min), with a pressure of 985 mbar (hPa; 29.09 inHg) by the end of day 3, whereas the JTWC foresees winds of 70 knots (80 mph) (1-min). Regardless of how strong Halola gets, I would like to point out and abnormality about its projected tracks. It is rather unusual for a CPAC TC to track as far north as Japan once it crosses the dateline. In other words, Halola may be like a scaled down version of Oliwa. AndrewTalk To Me 15:31, July 17, 2015 (UTC) :Halola continues to have a (somewhat) exposed LLCC, with most convection displaced in its eastern quadrant. Intensity estimates remain the same from both agencies. For the time being, an adjoining TUTT cell is producing some westerly shear over Halola, and this should keep it in check for another day or so. As the storm begins reorganizing, it should turn more WNW, closer to Japan. Forecast peak intensities are still the same as well from both agencies, but the JTWC is predicting Halola will reorganize a little faster. Also, on a side note, Wake Island seems to have made it out okay from the system, based on the 2015 PTS Wikipedia article. Come on, Halola! Reorganize yourself! AndrewTalk To Me 01:26, July 18, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Depression Halola Although some deep convection has redeveloped near Halola's center, its LLCC has become less defined and convection further from the center is flaking apart. This is because of the TUTT cell producing moderate shear to the system's near north. As a result, the JTWC has lowered Halola's one-minute winds to 30 knots (35 mph), gusting to 40 knots (45 mph). Meanwhile, the JMA has also weakened Halola to a depression with a pressure of 1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg) and unknown winds. Although the JTWC predicts the system to rebound in around 24 hours due to the dissipation of the adjacent TUTT cell, given how Halola has been trekking equatorward, as well as the conditions it has experienced, I won't be surprised if it simply dissipates beforehand. If not, Halola will probably develop an outflow channel to fuel intensification for a few days, before shear increases again and SST's drop to unfavorable levels. Regardless of what happens in this system's future, Japan should start bracing for another potential typhoon. AndrewTalk To Me 20:46, July 18, 2015 (UTC) :After what seemed to be an unfortunate end to Halola, the comeback is being made. JTWC information suggests the system has regained some deep convection and expanded its moisture field, following the relocation of the aforementioned TUTT cell. However, low to moderate amounts of southwesterly shear are keeping Halola's convection displaced to the east, and intensity estimates remain the same from both agencies (although the JMA is now reporting winds of 30 knots (35 mph) (10-min)). As the STR dictates Halola's NW motion, the JTWC forecasts the storm to first move away completely from the TUTT's influence, and then gain a equatorward and then poleward outflow channels. Moreover, this should allow Halola to maintain its intensity even after SST's start to decrease in a few days. As for the JMA, they expect reintensification into a tropical storm in about 24 hours. This fighter isn't ready to give up yet... AndrewTalk To Me 12:18, July 19, 2015 (UTC) Typhoon Halola (2nd time) Stubborn little thing... our Halola is bouncing back big time. Still a strong tropical storm per JTWC (60 kts 1-min), but JMA has re-upgraded Halola to a typhoon, with 10-min winds of 65 kts and a pressure of 975 mbar. I'm not gonna lie, I'm very impressed by this storm's persistence. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 06:12, July 21, 2015 (UTC) :Dylan, the JTWC has been predicting this amount of reintensification from when Halola had collapsed down to a weak TS. There were times when I feared the storm wouldn't make it back through that shear, but I am also very glad it survived. Anyway, based on the JMA's latest advisory, I feel like Halola is trying to sneak in some last-minute RI. They have upgraded its winds to 80 knots (90 mph) (10-min), with a pressure of 955 mbar (hPa; 28.20 inHg). This is a 20 mbar pressure plummet from your post above, Dylan. Also, the JTWC prognostic reasoning notes Halola is beginning to develop a very small eye, and thus, have upgraded its one-minute winds to 75 knots (85 mph) gusting to 90 knots (105 mph). And things only are looking better for the next couple days. With low shear, SST's of 28C+, and sufficient outflow, the JTWC foresees Halola reaching 90 knots (105 mph) (1-min) gusting to 110 knots (125 mph) in about 36-48 hours. I believe this is attainable for the system, just take a look at this!. The JMA expects some slight intensification within the next day from Halola as well. From there, as the typhoon rounds the STR, increasing shear, decreasing SST's, and land interaction with Japan should bring it down intensitywise. However, the JTWC predicts Halola will close in on Kyushu as a borderline TS/typhoon, which may result in some slight impacts like heavy surf. Welcome back, Halola! AndrewTalk To Me 18:03, July 21, 2015 (UTC) ::This is a pretty persistent storm. I thought it was dying, but now look what we have here! What a strong fighter. Now, with it probably RI-ing a bit more, Halola might bring heavy surf to Japanese waters. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 19:49, July 21, 2015 (UTC) :::Speaking of which, due to the spread in model guidance, Halola is expected to veer closer to Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands now, based on the adjusted JTWC and JMA forecast cones. No new intensity changes, but the JTWC has noted Halola's eye is starting to fill up. Nevertheless, it still has another day or two to chug in some more intensity. AndrewTalk To Me 23:27, July 21, 2015 (UTC) :::: This thing's been around for quite some time, I'm impressed Halola managed to become a typhoon again when it was expected to be dead by now. It could become a category 2 again, but it won't get much stronger than that. If Halola manages to turn north and hit Japan as a TS, it would be the first CPac to WPac storm to do that since Oliwa in 1997. Fortunately, it's retaining it's small CPac size into the WPac, so if Halola makes landfall in Japan, it won't be as widespread as Nangka was earlier. Ryan1000 04:45, July 22, 2015 (UTC) :::::Now a Category 2 by JTWC standards (90 kts 1-min), forecast to peak as a marginal 3, and expected to land in - get this - South Korea! Has any CPAC-borne TC ever made landfall there before? --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 00:57, July 23, 2015 (UTC) The farthest west a CPac TC ever came to making landfall in Asia was in southern Japan from Oliwa of 1997. No CPac to WPac storm has ever made it farther than that (though plenty of them have hit the Mariana/Marshall islands farther southeast), if Halola makes it to Korea it'd be a new record. Ryan1000 01:52, July 23, 2015 (UTC) :Okay... this has to be a first... Halola just entered PAGASA's AOR and has now been named Goring. Somehow I highly doubt a CPAC storm has pulled that off before. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 04:26, July 25, 2015 (UTC) If memory serves...Paka of 1997 was also named by PAGASA (Rubing), so this would actually be the second time that a CPac storm was named by PAGASA. However, Halola is still holding together, it still has a chance to make it to Southern Japan as a TS (I would rule a South Korea landfall out at this point), which would also be a second for a CPac/WPac crosser, after Oliwa. Ryan1000 20:27, July 25, 2015 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Halola (2nd time) And...Halola is down to a STS by JMA. But it could still make it to Japan before dying out. Ryan1000 20:48, July 25, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Halola (3rd time) Well I'll be, it looks like Halola did make it. Halola has now made landfall in southern Japan as a minimal 40 mph tropical storm (45 by JMA). That's only the second time on record a CPac storm made it this far west. It'll probably die out tomorrow. Ryan1000 12:25, July 26, 2015 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Halola After roaming the Central and Western Pacific for 16 days, Halola has finally ceased to be. Overall impacts in southern Japan likely weren't too bad, due to it's small size and weak nature. Ryan1000 11:27, July 27, 2015 (UTC)